Guys who could surprise: Part 1
(Editor’s Note: This is the first of a two-part series on “guys who could surprise” in 2020. The first part focuses on intriguing Dodger players who’ve already made their MLB debuts.)
by Cary Osborne
Beyond the list of the most-recognized and highly touted young Dodger players are a few individuals who have some intriguing potential and big league experience.
We categorize these players as candidates for a surprise season in 2020. Now let’s explain “surprise” in the context of the Dodgers.
Each one of these players has shown promise in the past and continues to show promise. Because the Dodgers’ 40-man roster is so deep and talented, these players have flown largely under the radar.
But maybe 2020 is their year to make a greater impact.
Caleb Ferguson
Ferguson is 23 and has two big league seasons under his belt. He’ll turn 24 on July 2. Last season, 71.6 percent of the 261 players who made their Major League debut were 24 or older.
Though Ferguson finished 2019 with a 4.84 ERA, he had a 2.91 ERA and held opponents to a .153 average and .278 slugging percentage in his final 22 games. He allowed one home run in that time.
According to Statcast, his exit velocity over the entire season ranked in the 87th percentile.
His curveball was better than average in results and elite in spin rate. Opponents hit .175 against it, slugged .300 and had an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of .280, and his spin rate (3,023 rpm) ranked in the 98th percentile.
He topped out at 97.1 mph with his four-seamer.
Ferguson’s biggest red flag last season was walk rate, averaging 5.4 BB/9 — more than double the 2.2 of his rookie campaign in 2018, when he also had a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He added a third pitch to his arsenal (curveball, four seamer), debuting a slider in Spring Training 2020.
He faced 16 batters in Cactus League play, and allowed one baserunner — a double. Small sample size, not the same as regular season competition, but Ferguson showed impressive command.
The Dodgers will enter 2020 with more options than spots in the starting rotation and the bullpen. But Ferguson has the versatility to impact in either role.
Early in Spring Training, Dodger manager Dave Roberts said he viewed Ferguson as a reliever. But his past ability to get both left- and right-handed batters out and pitch in short or long relief could make him a valuable figure this season.
Edwin Ríos
Eight Dodgers made their big league debuts last year — many of them earning big roles with the club. Ríos, who will turn 26 on April 21, appeared in back-to-back games twice and came into a game as a substitute in 21 of 28 games.
But his power is special.
He batted .277/.293/.617/1.010 with four home runs and seven extra-base hits in 56 plate appearances. He hit the longest homer of the year by a Dodger — a 473-foot solo shot against the Padres on Sept. 25. His 92 home runs over the last four years are tied for eighth most in the Minor Leagues.
The left-handed-hitting corner infielder/outfielder batted .301/.366/.559/.925 with 56 home runs against upper-level (Double and Triple-A) Minor League right-handers since 2017.
He was 11-for-40 with four home runs and a 1.046 OPS against Major League right-handers last season.
The two big questions for Ríos is what position the Dodgers will be confident playing him at and if he can cut down his strikeouts. He struck out in 34.8% of his 500 combined plate appearances last year.
Dennis Santana
The results of Santana’s four career big league games and his entire body of work in 2019 might not make him seem like a fit for this list.
But Santana’s final nine games in Triple-A Oklahoma City last year raise an eyebrow.
In 14 innings, he struck out 21 batters and limited opponents to a .180 average and .260 slugging percentage at the end of the most powerful offensive season in Pacific Coast League history.
Those final nine games also represented a shift for the 23-year-old right-hander, who was originally signed as a shortstop. Santana was moved to the bullpen after posting a 7.83 ERA in his first 18 games with Oklahoma City. He started 2019 with the big league Dodgers and allowed four earned runs in five innings.
The Dodgers used an average of 17 different relief pitchers per year over the last three seasons. They’ll tap into the Minors at various points, which could present an opportunity for Santana.
MLB.com’s scouting report talks about his potential:
When it’s on, Santana’s fastball is notable for both its velocity (sitting 93–95 mph with a peak of 98) and its sink, though it wasn’t as powerful or lively for much of 2019 and he struggled to command it as well. His 81–85 mph slider can be even more devastating with two-plane break. He’ll need to continue to refine his changeup after left-handers tagged him for a 1.026 OPS last year.
