The NLCS of momentum and matchups
by Cary Osborne
It’s physics, really.
The National League Championship Series is momentum and Newton’s third law.
It’s two of the hottest teams since September 1st, each playing the matchup game forcing the other to react.
And the matchup game started immediately with the Brewers naming Gio Gonzalez as their Game 1 starting pitcher.
Gonzalez has a career 1.89 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers — one per year since 2012.
Left-handed batters are hitting .219/.261/.336 against him this year. The Dodgers were 6-for-35 against Atlanta left-handers in the National League Division Series after hitting .272 with an .825 OPS against lefties from Sept. 1-Oct. 1.
The Dodgers get left-hander Wade Miley in Game 2 and right-hander Jhoulys Chacin in Game 3.
Combined, those three starters averaged a shade fewer than five innings an outing in 16 starts from Sept. 1-Oct. 1. Only two of those starts have lasted a full six innings.
Milwaukee will lean on a bullpen that allowed two earned runs in 15 1/3 innings to the Colorado Rockies in their division series. From Sept. 1-Oct. 1, the Brewers had an MLB-best 1.98 ERA.
Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell went as far as to say Chacin is available to pitch out of the bullpen in Game 1. That could make, depending how many pitchers are on the Brewers’ NLCS roster, at least 10 Milwaukee pitchers available for Game 1.
“It’s no secret that we’re going to use our pitching a little differently than traditionally, than the traditionalists would like,” Counsell said. “And so for us the first matchup that we liked was Gio on the mound. We’re asking Gio to go out there and get a bunch of outs. How many, you know, we’ll just see how it goes. We know we’ve got a lot of guys, the depth of our staff is what is the most meaningful thing for me when we kind of figure out how we do this. And we like the depth of our staff, and we think Gio is the perfect option to start us out.”
During the regular season, the Dodgers pinch-hit 352 times — 55 more than the next closest team. The Dodgers’ .348 pinch-hitters’ on-base percentage was second in the Majors and their .736 OPS was fourth.
Dodger subs had a .711 OPS, well above the Major League average of .653.
Max Muncy led the charge as a pinch-hitter and a sub, OPSing 1.100 in 30 pinch-hit plate appearances and 1.027 as a sub in 49.
Muncy will start Game 1 on the bench in favor of David Freese at first base.
Since joining the Dodgers Sept. 1 and including the postseason, Freese is batting .448/.529/.759 against left-handers in 34 plate appearances. Freese, Kiké Hernández and Justin Turner all have an OPS of 1.000 or higher against lefties since Sept. 1. Chris Taylor is right behind at .995.
Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Max Muncy and Taylor all have an OPS higher than 1.000 against right-handers since Sept. 1.
The Dodgers have strong options in early and late situations, giving Dodger manager Dave Roberts confidence in his offense’s flexibility.
“We haven’t seen a pen like this, yeah, obviously since the trade deadline, and some of the guys that they’ve picked up. It’s as deep a bullpen as you’re going to see in the big leagues,” Roberts said. “Very good arms, very neutral as far as left hand versus right hand. But the quality isn’t compensated at all. So I like our position players, too. So there’s going to be some kind of chess played this series, and that’s part of the fun.”
But the Dodger bullpen has been outstanding, as well.
In 10 2/3 innings against Atlanta, Dodger relievers allowed one earned run, striking out 11 batters to one walk. Since Sept. 1, the bullpen’s ERA is 2.66 and 1.08 WHIP.
On the starting side, Roberts named his guys for Games 1–4. In order, it’s Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Walker Buehler and Rich Hill.
Dodger starters held Braves hitters to a .143/.226/.190 line in the NLDS.
Those four starters have held opponents to the following slashline since Sept. 1:
Buehler: .135/.224/.216
Hill: .183/.243/.357
Kershaw: .219/.260/.391
Ryu: .243/.259/.343
Ryu has walked three batters in 37 innings and Buehler has allowed 20 hits in 44 innings.
Milwaukee is averaging 5.3 runs per game from Sept. 1 on with 43 home runs in 30 games.
Outfielder Christian Yelich, who led the NL in batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases during the regular season, has a 1.305 OPS with 11 home runs since Sept. 1. Ryan Braun, at .932, is the only other Brewer above .850 since that date.
As a team, Milwaukee has a .766 OPS vs. left-handers and .800 OPS vs. right-handers since that date, sixth and fifth in baseball.
Where the Brewers have a statistical edge is defense. In the second-half, their 89 defensive runs as a team was second in the Majors. The Dodgers were eighth at 31.
The Brewers haven’t lost since Sept. 22.
The Dodgers have lost once since Sept. 28.
Both teams are riding momentum.
This collision will end one team’s and its season.
